Analysis of Bankruptcy Prediction Accuracy Using the Altman Z-Score, Springate, Taffler, and Zmijewski Models in Property & Real Estate Companies Listed on the IDX (2020-2023)
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.58765/ijemr.v4i1.374Keywords:
Accuracy Level, Altman Z-score, Springate, Taffler, ZmijewskiAbstract
Purpose – This research assesses bankruptcy predictions derived from various models to identify the most accurate approach, especially for real estate companies that are publicly traded and listed on the Jakarta Stock Exchange between 2020 and 2023. It also seeks to examine the bankruptcy tendencies of each chosen company, as indicated by the respective models.
Design/methodology/approach – Evaluating a company's financial stability necessitates a comprehensive analysis employing models such as the Altman, Springate, Taffler, and Zmijewski Z-score to forecast the potential hazards of future insolvency.
Originality – This research assesses the bankruptcy prognosis scores of real estate firms by comparing them to actual outcomes, as demonstrated by the net losses incurred between 2020 and 2023. To select the model exhibiting the highest accuracy and the lowest error rates, Type I and Type II error analyses are conducted.
Findings and Discussion – Taffler's model predicts real estate company bankruptcy best, followed by Altman Z-Score and Zmijewski, and Springate's least accurately. It recommends that enterprises continuously assess financial performance, refrain from incurring excessive debt, maintain adequate current assets to fulfill liabilities, and improve profit margins.
Conclusion – This study recommends that companies perform regular financial assessments, limit reliance on debt to finance assets, maintain sufficient current assets to cover liabilities, and work on improving profit margins.
Downloads
References
Altman, E. I. (1968). Financial ratios, discriminant analysis and the prediction of corporate bankruptcy. The journal of finance, 23(4), 589-609.
Ananta, I. B. P. W., & Adiputra, I. M. P. (2024). Analisis Perbandingan Keakuratan antara Metode Taffler dan Fulmer dalam Memprediksi Financial Distress (Studi Kasus Pada Perusahaan Energi yang Terdaftar di BEI Tahun 2018-2022). Jurnal Ilmiah Akuntansi Dan Humanika, 14(2), 190–201.
Bahri, S. (2016). Pengantar Akuntansi. CV Andi Offset.
Effendi, R. (2018). Analisis Prediksi Kebangkrutan dengan Metode Altman, Springate, Zmijewski, Foster, dan Grover pada Emiten Jasa Transportasi. Parsimonia, 4(3), 307-319.
Foster, G. M. (1972). A second look at limited good. Anthropological Quarterly, 57-64.
Fulmer, J. G., Moon, J. E., Gavin, T. A., & Erwin, M. (1984). A bankruptcy classification model for small firms. Journal of commercial bank lending, 66(11), 25-37.
Grover, J., & Lavin, A. (2001). Financial ratios, discriminant analysis and the prediction of corporate bankruptcy: A service industry extension of Altman’s Z-score model of bankruptcy prediction. Southern Finance Association.
Hayaty, S. & Rikumahu, B. 2022. Analysis of The Impact of The Covid-19 Events on Stocks on the LQ45 Index for the January - March 2020 Period. Almana: Jurnal Manajemen dan Bisnis. Bandung: Prodi Manajemen FE Universitas Langlangbuana. https://doi.org/10.36555/almana.v6i1.1741.
Indrawan, A., & Gusmarani, Z. (2023). Analisis Penggunaan Metode Altman Z-Score, Zmijewski, Groverm Springate Dan Taffler Dalam Memprediksi Financial Distress (Studi Empiris Pada Perusahaan Perhotelan Yang Terdaftar Di Bursa Efek Indonesia 2021-2022). Konferensi Ilmiah Akuntansi (KIA 10), 1–12.
Lim, W., & Ng, M. (2024). Analysis Of Bankruptcy Prediction Using Grover, Taffler and Zmijewski Models and Their Effect On Company Value In Non Primary Consumer Goods Sector Companies Listed On The Indonesia Stock Exchange Period 2017-2022. Procuratio: Jurnal Ilmiah Manajemen, 12(1), 85–98.
Meilawati, A., Damayanti, & Ilhami, S. (2023). Analisis Perbandingan Model Altman, Springate dan Zmijewski dalam Memprediksi Kebangkrutan pada Perusahaan Subsektor Hotel, Restoran dan Pariwisata Periode 2017-2021. Jurnal Ilmiah Feasible: Bisnis, Kewirausahaan & Koperasi, 5(2), 155-162.
Ohlson, J. (1980): “Financial Ratios and the Probabilistic Prediction of Bankruptcy,” Journal of Accounting Research, 19, 109—131
Peter, P.,Herlina, H., & Wiraatmaja, J. (2021). Analisis Kebangkrutan Perusahaan Melalui Perbandingan Model Altman Z-Score, Model Springate's, dan Model Fulmer pada Industri Semen di Indonesia. ULTIMA Management, 13(2), 369-378.
Platt, H. & Platt, M.B. 2002. Predicting Financial Distress. Journal of Financial Service Professionals. DOI: 10.1007/BF02755985.
Prakoso, W. H., Ulupui, I. G. K. A., & Perdana, P. N. (2022). Analisis Perbandingan Model Taffler, Springate, dan Grover Dalam Memprediksi Kebangkrutan Perusahaan. Jurnal Akuntansi, Perpajakan Dan Auditing, 3(1), 1–15. https://doi.org/10.21009/japa.0301.01.
Salimah, S., & Yunita, I. (2020). Analisis Tingkat Akurasi Model Springate, Ohlson dan Grover Dalam Memprediksi Financial Distress (Studi Empiris pada Perusahaan Sub Sektor Pertambangan Batubara di Bursa Efek Indonesia Periode 2013-2017. Jurnal `Mitra Manajemen, 4(2), 302-311.
Sari, M., & Yunita, I. (2019). Analisis Prediksi Kebangkrutan dan Tingkat Akurasi Model Springate, Zmijewski dan Grover pada Perusahaan Sub Sektor Logam dan Mineral Lainnya yang Terdaftar di Bursa Efek Indonesia Tahun 2012-2016. JIM UPB, 7(1).
Shi, Y., & Li, X. (2019). An overview of bankruptcy prediction models for corporate firms: A systematic literature review. Intangible Capital, 15(2), 114–127. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.3926/ic.1354.
Sitorus, M., & Yulita, S. M. (2023). Analisis Potensi Kebangkrutan Pada PT. Prima Mulia Engineering dengan Metode Altman Z-Score untuk Periode 2017-2020. Jurnal Teknologi Dan Manajemen, 21(1), 1–8. https://doi.org/10.52330/jtm.v21i1.69
Springate, G. L. (1978). Predicting the Possibility of Failure in a Canadian Firm: A Discriminant Analysis. Doctoral dissertation, Simon Fraser University.
Taffler, R. J. (1983). The assessment of company solvency and performance using a statistical model. Accounting and Business Research, 13(52), 295-308.
Zmijewski, M. E. (1984). Methodological issues related to the estimation of financial distress prediction models. Journal of Accounting research, 59-82.
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
