Allocating the BARMM Transition Budget: Fiscal Choices and Economic Credibility in a Post-Conflict Region

Abstract

This case study looks at the financial decision-making difficulties that Murad Ebrahim, the first Chief Minister of the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao, encountered during the BARMM transition period after the Bangsamoro Organic Law was ratified. The case, which takes place between 2020 and 2025, places students in a post-conflict regional government that has just acquired financial independence thanks to a block grant required by the constitution. The case illustrates the financial trade-offs associated with distributing a fixed public budget among conflicting priorities like social services, productive investment, infrastructure, and administrative capacity building using actual data on the BARMM transition budget, gross regional domestic product, and poverty incidence. The story purposefully concludes without disclosing the ultimate allocation decision, despite presenting actual institutional limitations, unequal implementation capacity, and high public expectations for peace dividends. The case, which is intended for undergraduate economics and public policy courses, encourages students to use concepts from public finance and development economics to assess fiscal decisions in a decentralised, post-conflict governance environment.